MILAN – Coffee futures fell sharply in midweek trading. Yesterday, Wednesday 19 November 2025, the ICE Arabica main contract for March delivery lost 3.3%, closing at 374.85 cents. Although slightly recovering, the level of certified stocks in New York remains very low, just over 400,000 bags (400,323 as of 19 November). In London, the contract for January delivery fell 1.25% to settle at $4,516.
The main bearish factor was the weather in Brazil, with heavy rains forecast in the coffee belt between the end of this week and the beginning of next week.
Meanwhile, a new round of torrential rain, flooding and landslides is hitting central Vietnam, a key area for Robusta production, where more than 1,500 millimetres of rain has fallen in the last three days, with floods and landslides causing 16 deaths and 5 missing persons so far, flooding 43,000 homes and 10,000 hectares of land.
According to traders interviewed by Reuters, floodwaters have also inundated coffee plantations, hampering harvesting operations, which are in full swing at this time of year.
“Some coffee farms in low-lying areas of Dak Lak are deep in flood water,” said a coffee trader based in the province, quoted by Reuters. Heavy rain is continuing there, slowing down the harvest, another Dak Lak-based trader said, according to the same source.
The main harvest is also in full swing in Colombia, where current estimates predict a decline in this year’s harvest to around 13.5 million bags, due to unfavourable weather conditions in the first part of the year and the possible negative impact of La Niña in the coming months.
Estimates for the harvest in Mexico and Central America are also cautious, with forecasts predicting a partial recovery in production in 2025/26 compared to the harvest of the year just ended.
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