MILAN – Coffee prices continued to rise in September, approaching the historic highs reached in early 2025: according to data contained in the ICO report released yesterday afternoon, Monday 6 October, ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) recorded a 9.3% increase last month, following 14.6% increase in August, thus soaring to 324.62 cents, the highest level since May this year, although still far from the peak of 354.32 cents reached in February.
Volatility remained very high at 13.8%, with peaks of 15% for Robustas and 15.2% and 16.2% for New York and London respectively.
The daily composite indicator price fluctuated between a high of 360.74 cents on 15 September and a low of 298.14 cents on 23 September. Brazilian Naturals recorded the most significant increase in the monthly average (+11.3%), followed by Colombian Milds (+10.1%), Other Milds (+9.3%) and Robustas (+5.9%). New York and London (average prices for 2nd and 3rd position) rose by 11.5% and 8.9% respectively.
Returning to the daily average, the indicator started the month at 333.68 cents and, after reaching the aforementioned peak of 360.74 cents on the 15th, turned negative, closing on 30 September, the last day of the 2024/25 coffee year, at 314.64 cents.
This two-phase trend, rising in the first half of the month and falling in the second half, can be explained by the different dynamics that gradually prevailed.
In the first half of September 2025, says the report, several key events applied upward pressure on the market. These include, but are not limited to:
Concerns regarding the long-term supply of coffee into the USA, due to uncertainty around long-term tariffs on coffee as ICE stocks start to deplete in the country. However, on 8 September, the US administration issued an executive order changing the tariffs for “aligned partners” that have established trade agreements with the US. The order recognizes that certain goods cannot be sufficiently produced or sourced domestically, with the focus shifting towards items that “cannot be grown, mined, or naturally produced” in the USA or which are not available in adequate quantities to satisfy domestic demand. Coffee, as one of the commodities that cannot be produced in the US on a large enough scale to meet domestic demand, has not yet seen its tariffs revised or revoked.
The consistent drawdown of certified stocks, (see Table & Figure 5) with low replenishment. These stocks are used as an alternative to coffee imports, signalling that the market is starting to feel the squeeze, i.e. a bullish indicator.
In the second half of September 2025, some other key events applied downward pressure on the market, with multiple key factors marking a turning point:
The ICE Futures U.S. revised its margin requirements upwards for the Arabica contracts on two occasions: 15 September and 17 September. An increased margin requirement from the exchange forces investors to increase their deposits with their brokers or exchange, so as to cover the increased credit risk posed by the holder of the position for the broker/exchange. The implications of these announcements are increased borrowing costs, which could in turn apply pressure on leveraged positions. By raising the cost of funding, it is more expensive both to open new positions and to maintain existing ones.
At the United Nations General Assembly, talks between the US and Brazil raised hopes for improved relations between the world’s largest coffee producing country and its largest destination market. This development helped to stabilize prices, signalling optimism for a tariff détente (currently at 50%).
The EU Commissioner for Environment, Water Resilience and a Competitive Circular Economy expressed concern regarding the capacity of the EU Deforestation Regulation’s (EUDR) IT system to handle the expected volume of transactions, hence the need to consider a further one‑year extension before the application of the Regulation.
An interest rate cut by the US Federal reserve of 25 basis points on 17 September signalled to the market that, despite uncertainty about the economic outlook, the Federal Open Market Committee was prepared to lower borrowing costs. This therefore had a negative effect on coffee prices, as market participants will be able to access cheaper money to continue their trading operations.
The Brazilian weather – we might add – with fluctuating reports – sometimes positive, sometimes negative – on the quantity and quality of rainfall, as the main flowering season for the new Arabica crop approaches.
Global exports stable in the first 11 months of the coffee year
Meanwhile, global coffee exports slowed in August, falling by 3.7% to 11.354 million bags, due to lower shipments of Arabica coffee (-9.7%), amounting to 6.561 million bags. This was only partially offset by higher Robusta coffee exports (+5.9%), amounting to 4.793 million bags.
Global exports of all forms of coffee during the first 11 months of the 2024/25 coffee year are in line with the same period last year at 127.917 million bags (+0.2%).
Arabica exports fell slightly (-0.6%) to 77.195 million bags. Colombian Milds exports grew strongly (+14.2%), reaching 13.812 million — over 1.7 million more than in the same period in 2023/24.
The trend for Other Milds was also positive, with exports growing by 1.7% to 24.491 million bags. Exports of Brazilian Naturals slowed significantly (-6.2%) to 38.893 million bags.
Finally, Robusta exports increased by 1.4% to 50.721 million bags.
The estimates for global production and consumption for the 2023/24 coffee year just ended remain unchanged at 178 and 177 million bags, respectively representing growth of 5.8% and 2.2%.
These figures result in a surplus of just 1 million bags, following two years marked by deficits of 8.6 million in 2021/22 and 4.9 million in 2022/23.
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