MILAN – The rally on the coffee markets has come to an abrupt halt. Yesterday, Thursday 23 October, both terminals turned negative, wiping out all the gains made in the early hours of trading. The weather was once again the main driving factor, with rain forecast for Brazil’s coffee belt over the weekend.
In addition, the latest updates from Vietnam suggest that tropical storm Fengshen is less likely to damage crops in the Central Highlands with heavy rainfall. In New York, the contract for December delivery rose to an intraday high of 437.95 cents, close to last February’s highs.
Subsequent profit-taking pushed the contract into negative territory, closing at 410.15 cents (-2.5%). In London, the most active contract for January delivery lost 3.7%, ending the day at $4,521.
Preparations and consultations are underway ahead of the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, scheduled for Sunday 26 October in Malaysia, during the ASEAN summit.
On Wednesday 22 October, the director general of the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafé), Marcos Matos, and the technical director, Eduardo Heron, attended a meeting in Brasília with the vice president and Minister of Development, Industry, Trade and Services, Geraldo Alckmin.
The meeting focused on the tariffs imposed by the United States on Brazilian coffee. Regarding coffee tariffs, Matos explained that there are two options: “The product could be included in the request for suspension of all tariffs on Brazilian products, while the bilateral trade agreement is being finalised; or, if there is no such suspension, coffee could remain on the product-by-product exemption list, included in Annex 2 of the executive order signed by President Trump on 5 September.”
There are high expectations for production growth in Uganda. According to data provided to Reuters by the commissioner of the coffee department at the Ministry of Agriculture Gerald Kyalo, Africa’s largest coffee exporter expects a 14.8% increase in the coffee year that has just begun, bringing the 2025/26 harvest to 9.3 million bags, compared to the estimated 8.1 million for 2024/25.
The ministry’s optimism is driven by new coffee trees entering production.
Over the years, the government of President Yoweri Museveni has been handling out free seedlings to new and existing farmers to expand their acreage or open up new farmland, reports Reuters. The government has also been helping farmers with free fertiliser.
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