Coffee News Recap, 12 Dec: USDA predicts global coffee deficits for 2025/26, Brazil’s coffee exports fell by 21% in the first half of 2025 & other stories

Every Friday, Perfect Daily Grind rounds up the top coffee industry news from the week. 

Editor’s note

Although almost all coffee products (excluding soluble Brazilian coffee) are exempt from US reciprocal tariffs, coffee prices remain high.

The news that the USDA predicts a global deficit in 2025/26 will only drive prices higher. Compounding the situation is Cecafé’s recent statement that Brazil’s coffee exports fell by 21% in the first half of 2025, primarily due to 50% duties on shipments to the US. Port issues and delays also led Brazilian exporters to lose R$8.7mn (roughly US$1.6mn) in October alone.

Retail prices are likely to keep climbing in 2026. illycaffè plans to raise its prices again in January after two increases this year. The Italian brand also predicts that the C price will stabilise between US$2.80 and US$3/lb in the second half of 2026, which is still above the average of the past five years.

As 2025 comes to an end, the price volatility that defined this year will continue into the next.

The Danish Barista Champion at the 2025 World Barista Championship in Milan, Italy.

Top stories of the week

  • Mon, 8 Dec – Devastating floods and landslides in Aceh and Sumatra affect coffee-growing highlands. Extreme weather and heavy rain from Tropical Cyclone Senyar have affected over 3 million people and displaced more than 2 million. The Gayo highland coffee plantation zone in Aceh has also been severely affected by flash flooding, soil erosion, and landslides across much of the Gayo highlands, where more than 90,000 ha of Sumatra Gayo arabica plantation are located. (Kuala Simpang, Indonesia)
  • Tue, 9 Dec – USDA predicts global coffee deficits for 2025/26. The estimates show a narrower global supply margin as production drops in key origins while demand remains firm. Market observers expect continued pressure on coffee prices if consumption holds steady. (Washington, DC, US)
  • Wed, 10 Dec – Sponsors announced for 2026-27 World Barista Championships. The Tempesta by Barista Attitude is the Qualified Espresso Machine; the Ceado REV Zero and E37Z-Naked Grinders are the Qualified Espresso Grinders; and BWT water+more is the Qualified Water Filtration Sponsor. The 2026 competition will take place in Panama in October. (Irvine, California, US)
  • Thu, 11 Dec – China opens over 20,000 coffee outlets in 12 months. Project Café East Asia 2026 reports that the total number of outlets in East Asia grew 18.4% over the last 12 months to 180,268. China, Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines achieved double-digit outlet growth. China’s branded coffee shop market reached 87,505 outlets, becoming the only branded coffee shop market globally to add over 20,000 net new outlets in a calendar year. (London, UK)
  • Fri, 12 Dec – San Franciscan Roaster Company CEO and President Bill Kennedy passes away. A former teacher and pilot, Kennedy was renowned for his passion and dedication to coffee education, shaping the careers of countless professionals. He leaves behind a wife and six children, while the company mourns his loss and vows to honour his legacy. (Carson City, Nevada, US)

Industry news

  • Mon, 8 Dec – Reformulation and R&D guide for UK sugar tax changes. Food and beverage manufacturers are accelerating reformulation to meet new UK sugar levy thresholds, using low-calorie sweeteners, fibre bulking, and process tweaks. R&D focuses on taste retention, compliance, and cost management ahead of the phased implementation of the rules. (London, UK)
  • Wed, 10 Dec – J.M. Smucker absorbs tariff rise and halts coffee price increases. The company says it will absorb higher US import tariffs and suspend planned consumer price hikes to protect demand. Management warns margins will be squeezed and says it will revisit pricing if policy or input costs change. (Orrville, Ohio, US)
  • Thu, 11 Dec – Coca-Cola CEO James Quincey to leave position after nine years. Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer Henrique Braun will succeed Quincey as CEO from 31 March 2026. The leadership change comes as the beverage company tries to reverse slower demand for its sodas. Coca-Cola is also exploring the sale of Costa Coffee. (Atlanta, Georgia, US)
  • Thu, 11 Dec – Ajax and Lavazza extend sponsorship until 2030. The historic partnership continues, with Lavazza supplying coffee at Ajax’s Johan Cruyff Arena, the training complex De Toekomst, and club events, while maintaining a presence in hospitality and fan engagement. VHC Jongens remains the operational supplier in the Netherlands. (Amsterdam, Netherlands)
  • Fri, 12 Dec – Bacha Coffee targets 50 stores in Japan. Following a Tokyo Ginza debut, the Singaporean luxury label plans to expand its retail and gifting presence, targeting up to 50 outlets to tap premium urban demand and airport retail, while emphasising ornate store design and high-margin packaged coffee. (Tokyo, Japan)
  • Fri, 12 Dec – Starbucks union expands month-long strike to 34 cities. More than 3,800 baristas have walked out at approximately 180 stores across 130 US cities, demanding better staffing, predictable schedules, and pay. Starbucks noted that less than 1% of its 17,000 US locations were impacted and is open to resuming talks when ready. (Brookline, Massachusetts, US)

Businesses for sale

  • Mon, 8 Dec – Luxury candy brand Sugarfina acquires LA’s Caffe Luxxe. The boutique candy brand acquired the upscale coffee chain via a 100% stock merger, marking its third strategic move to build a portfolio of specialty brands. Caffe Luxxe, founded in 2006, operates seven locations and plans to expand into new neighbourhoods. (LA, California, US)
  • Thu, 11 Dec – Hermanos targets UK and Middle East expansion. London’s Hermanos will pursue a franchised growth strategy to expand beyond the capital, prioritising the Middle East for its first international outlets and targeting key coffee cities to scale retail and wholesale reach. (London, UK)
A baby bird on a branch next to coffee cherries.

New launch

  • Mon, 8 Dec – Raw Material Coffee launches 11 Million Trees programme in Timor-Leste. The UK social enterprise has launched phase two of its initiative to double coffee output and reduce poverty for smallholder families. The Kickstarter campaign supports solar-powered mills, workshops, bamboo infrastructure, nurseries, soil restoration, and variety-testing forests, offering contributors named trees and future coffee from these efforts. (Bristol, UK)
  • Tue, 9 Dec – Schaerer rolls out Easy Access concept for Coffee Soul. Buttons on the drip tray let wheelchair users navigate menus and personalise drinks, while the touchless outlet adjusts cup height to prevent spills and burns. Existing Coffee Soul 10/12 machines can be retrofitted in under 30 minutes. (Zuchwil, Switzerland)
  • Wed, 10 Dec – Happy happy! 5L bag-in-box narrows automation gap for plant milks. The company introduced a 5L bag-in-box Oat Oat Oat for high-volume cafés. The low-sediment formula reportedly runs cleanly through automated milk systems, reduces refills and downtime, and delivers consistent microfoam and latte art at scale. (London, UK)
  • Thu, 11 Dec – Sovda releases V2 of its Precision Fill mini-bagging machine. The company says the upgraded unit automates filling 250-1,000g coffee bags with improved accuracy, faster throughput, and reduced waste, and addresses small roaster demand for efficient packaging without requiring large-scale equipment investment. (Sacramento, California, US)
  • Fri, 12 Dec – MixMate launches magnetic self-stirring mug. The company says its Magnetic WhirlMix technology creates a fast vortex to dissolve powders and creamers, while double-wall insulation keeps drinks hot for longer. The brand targets coffee drinkers who add collagen, creamers, and butter for clump-free crinks. (Chicago, Illinois, US)
  • Fri, 12 Dec – Lavazza unveils 2026 calendar. The Pleasure Makes Us Human calendar, photographed by Alex Webb for Armando Testa, features 12 scenes that link coffee to the Italian lifestyle. Lavazza positions the project as part of its long-standing partnership with contemporary art and photography. (Turin, Italy)

Milestone

  • Mon, 8 Dec – Brazilian chain The Coffee opens first US store in Miami. The Curitiba brand has inaugurated its first US location in Miami’s Wynwood district. Known for its Japanese-inspired minimalist design and tech-forward approach, the company is opening this location as a significant step in its global expansion, aiming to reach 1,500 international stores by 2028. (Miami, Florida, US)
  • Tue, 9 Dec – Dubai’s Coffee Planet marks 20-year milestone. Founded with a single machine in 2005, Coffee Planet has expanded into a regional roaster with a Dubai facility, sourcing from 23 origins, building retail partnerships across the UAE, and, most recently, expanding into Riyadh. (Dubai, UAE)
  • Tue, 9 Dec – Panther Coffee marks 15th anniversary with TogetherWith campaign. TogetherWith ran a strategic PR campaign that secured a Miami Herald feature, supported the Panther Cuvée launch with MAWBY Winery and promoted a December Wynwood event combining music, coffee tastings, and community engagement. (Miami, Florida, US)
  • Wed, 10 Dec – Biggby Coffee recognised on Forbes 2026 customer service list. Forbes singled out Biggby’s franchise customer service programmes, staff training, and digital ordering, citing high guest satisfaction scores. The accolade bolsters the chain’s service credentials amid expansion plans. (East Lansing, Michigan, US)
  • Fri, 12 Dec – Toffee Coffee Roasters secures US$600,000 in pre-Series A led by IPV. The Bengaluru specialty brand raised US$600,000 in a round led by Inflexion Point Ventures, with participation from 66 Bridge Partners, Abhijit Vemuganti, and Invesst, to expand roastery capacity, quick-commerce presence, and product development. (Bengaluru, India)
  • Fri, 12 Dec – Juan Valdez makes Brazil debut with first store in São Paulo. The Colombian coffee chain has opened its first physical location at Ribeirão Shopping in Ribeirão Preto. Juan Valdez announced plans to open 300 stores in South America’s biggest economy over the next seven years using a sub-franchising model. (São Paulo, Brazil)

Trade & production

  • Wed, 10 Dec – Netafim promotes precision irrigation for coffee growers. Netafim highlights drip and digital tools, such as GrowSphere and HydroCalc, to boost coffee yields, reduce water use, and improve resilience to climate stress, offering tailored fertigation and monitoring solutions for coffee farms. (Giv’atayim, Israel)
  • Fri, 12 Dec – Breeders expand Innovea network in Manizales. The Innovea Global Coffee Breeding Network expanded to include robusta, added Ghana and Vietnam as partners, harmonised genotyping and phenotyping protocols, and conducted genomic selection training to boost national breeding capacity across participating programmes. (Manizales, Colombia)

Research

  • Mon, 8 Dec – Coffee waste can help produce lower-carbon concrete, new study shows. Researchers converted spent coffee grounds into biochar and substituted up to 15% of sand in concrete, resulting in nearly 30% strength gains and lifecycle CO₂ reductions of 15%-26%. The process lowers fossil fuel use and eases demand for natural sand. (Melbourne, Australia)
  • Tue, 9 Dec – New study links higher coffee intake with elevated chronic pain in older adults. A two-year survey of 205 people aged 60-88 found that those who increased their coffee consumption reported a 6.56-point increase in pain intensity, compared with those who reduced their intake. In contrast, higher consumption of oily fish was associated with a 4.45-point reduction in pain scores. Researchers urge caution and call for further studies. (Warsaw, Poland)

Events & competitions

  • Mon, 8 Dec – Sial Paris 2026 to showcase global coffee innovations. The 2026 edition will feature expanded coffee halls with new roasting, brewing and RTD solutions, emphasising origin diversity, sustainability, and packaging advances for buyers seeking updated sourcing and product trends. (Paris, France)
  • Tue, 9 Dec – TÜV Rheinland Hong Kong convenes first global coffee machines summit. The gathering brought together manufacturers, regulators, and roasters to discuss safety standards, energy efficiency, and reuse regulations for espresso machines and grinders, with the aim of aligning industry practices with global compliance and sustainability demands. (Hong Kong, China)
  • Thu, 11 Dec – Lincoln & York receives two bronze medals at the Global Coffee Awards European edition. The private label supplier, which roasts roughly 9,000 tonnes of coffee a year, was recognised in the blind judging by an international panel of experts. The winning coffees in the Flat White Alternative Milk category were Single Origin Traditional, Brazil Ascarive FT, and the York Blend, demonstrating the team’s expertise across single origin and blend offerings. (Brigg, UK)
  • Fri, 12 Dec – CoE Brazil 2025 yields R$1.8mn; Arara and Gesha lead bids. Top offers included an Arara natural from Fazenda Aracaçu, split between a Japanese consortium comprising Snow Beans, Assist, and Kurihara, at US$65.10/lb, and Angelino’s Coffee at US$65/lb. Additionally, a Gesha Experimental was sold to Grupo Cafeza at US$61.40/lb. (São Paulo, Brazil)
  • Fri, 12 Dec – Registration opens for Grounds for Health Week 2026. The international fundraising week, which supports women’s health programmes in coffee-growing communities, begins each year on International Women’s Day. Coffee shops and roasters can sign up to receive marketing kits and will be featured in national Grounds for Health campaigns. (Ashfield, Massachusetts, US)

Here are a few coffee news stories from previous weeks that you might find interesting. Take a look:

  • Thu, 4 Dec – Rent dispute shuts down Rome’s historic 18th-century Caffè Greco. Rome’s oldest café, in operation since 1760, closed after its proprietors lost their final appeal in a legal dispute over a rent hike sought by the Israelite Hospital. The eviction order was enforced last month, but the hospital plans to preserve the historic site by leasing it to a new tenant. (Rome, Italy)
  • Thu, 4 Dec – Chagee reports lower profits amid intensifying competition. The Chinese tea chain reported Q3 2025 net revenue of US$450.7mn, reflecting increased competition. Net income dropped to US$55.9mn, with margins declining from 18.3% to 12.4%. Despite a 25.9% increase in store locations to 7,338, weaker sales at franchised outlets weighed on overall performance. (Beijing, China)

Photo credits: Specialty Coffee Association

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Want to keep up with current affairs in the coffee industry? Check out last week’s coffee news stories and make sure to read the latest Coffee Intelligence News & Opinion piece on why India’s coffee market is pivoting towards bakeries.

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