Coffee News Recap, 24 Jan: Conab cuts estimates for Brazil’s 2024-25 harvest by 1.6%, Dubai Coffee Auction announced for 10 & 11 Feb & other stories

Every Friday, Perfect Daily Grind rounds up the top coffee industry news from the week. 

Editor’s note

Conab, part of the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply, reduced its estimate of the country’s 2024-25 harvest by 600,000 60kg bags this week. The downward revision, largely expected, is the result of continued adverse weather conditions impacting Brazil’s harvests.

Production volumes in the key-growing region Minas Gerais, the largest arabica-producing state, were lower than in 2023-24. Robusta yields across the country were also down by 9.6% on the previous harvest season.

Brazil’s position as the world’s top coffee producer influences the entire market, so downcasts for the 2024-25 harvest are likely to drive coffee futures up, contributing to ongoing market volatility that producers, traders, and roasters are grappling with.

As the C price hovers around US $3.40/lb, demand for consistent, affordable coffee will keep rising. Simultaneously, however, interest in exclusive, high-end lots persists as consumers seek exciting, distinctive flavours.

Some roasters struggle to gain access to these coffees, but in recent years, virtual and hybrid auctions have emerged as a gateway to entry. On 10 and 11 February, M-Cultivo and the DMCC will co-host the Dubai Coffee Auction, giving international roasters access to exceptional lots from some of the world’s top producers.

Specialty coffee brands increasingly need to offer the best of both worlds: Reliable, lower-price point options alongside more exclusive, higher-quality lots. By doing so, they can differentiate in a fiercely competitive market, positioning themselves to better weather the storm.

Top stories of the week

• Mon, 20 Jan –Starbucks CEO plans job cuts as part of its turnaround strategy. Brian Niccol announced job cuts in support teams as part of the company’s restructuring, aiming to streamline operations. These cuts, to be revealed by March, will not affect in-store teams or investments. The company is also revamping US locations to enhance customer experience amid rising competition. (Seattle, Washington, US)

• Mon, 20 Jan – Arabica futures declined following Brazil’s record exports, while prices surged in the domestic market. ICE arabica reached US $3.30/lb on 15 January before declining sharply the following day. Both the international and Brazilian markets were influenced by the country’s export data, showing a 28.5% increase in 2024 exports, while domestic prices also surged as a result of adverse weather. (London, UK)

• Tue, 21 Jan –Robusta futures rise following supply concerns in Vietnam. ICE robusta futures surged 2.4%, reaching US $5,006/tonne after concerns about Vietnam’s declining shipments during the Lunar New Year. Brazil’s 2025-26 arabica crop is expected to fall by 11.2%, with overall production dropping 6.8%. However, carry-over stocks and a potential recovery in robusta are expected to meet demand. (London, UK)

• Wed, 22 Jan –M-Cultivo and DMCC to co-host the Dubai Coffee Auction on 10 & 11 February. The auction, taking place at WoC Dubai, will include exclusive lots from some of the world’s top coffee producers, including El Injerto in Guatemala, Inmaculada Coffee Farms in Colombia, Brazil’s Daterra, Gesha Village in Ethiopia, and Yemen’s Al-Khanshali. Registration is open until 1 February. (Dubai, UAE)

• Wed, 22 Jan –Conab cuts estimates for Brazil’s 2024-25 harvest by 1.6%. The association revised its 2024-25 estimates down by nearly 600,000 60kg bags to 54.2 million, citing adverse weather impacts, including frosts, droughts, and high temperatures. Arabica harvests increased by 1.8%, but robusta saw a 9.6% decline. Minas Gerais experienced significant drops in arabica output, while Espírito Santo saw growth, especially in arabica production. (Brasília, Brazil)

• Thu, 23 Jan –Timemore announces 2022 World Barista Champion Anthony Douglas as global brand ambassador. Timemore says Douglas’ experience in brewing and roasting aligns with the brand’s focus on quality and innovation. His expertise across different brewing methods supports the company’s efforts to improve the coffee experience, strengthening its ability to deliver consistently high standards. (Shanghai, China)

• Thu, 23 Jan –Coffee alternative brand Atomoraises US $7.8 million in new funding round. Since 2019, the Seattle brand has secured over US $58 million in funding, launched its “beanless” espresso in 2023, and operates a roastery producing 4 million pounds annually. Its sustainable product, blending synthetic and conventional coffee, is now in 71 cafés globally. (Seattle, Washington, US)

Industry news

• Mon, 20 Jan –Starbucks’ North America Director Mellody Hobson will step down after 20 years with the company. Joining in 2005, Hobson held key roles during significant moments like the global financial crisis and pandemic, contributing to the company’s growth. CEO Brian Niccol praised her leadership. Hobson, who remains a steadfast investor, will not seek re-election but continues to hold shares in Starbucks. (Seattle, Washington, US)

• Wed, 22 Jan –London’s Fair Shot supports workers with learning disabilities. The company aims to increase paid employment rates for people with learning disabilities, which was 4.8% in 2022-23. The programme trains individuals with conditions like autism and Down syndrome, helping them secure jobs at companies such as Goldman Sachs and The Ivy. (London, UK)

• Wed, 22 Jan –Paris Baguette North America aims to double yearly outlet growth. Paris Baguette surpassed 200 locations across the US and Canada in 2024, opening 51 new stores and signing 163 franchise deals. Plans include expansion into seven new US states and doubling the opening rate by 2025, supported by leadership changes and a new Texas bakery facility to drive North and Latin American growth. (Moonachie, New Jersey, US)

• Wed, 22 Jan –Miko Group CEO plans 2026 departure. Miko Group announced that CEO Frans Van Tilborg will step down on 1 January 2026, with Karl Hermans, a long-serving executive, named as his successor. Van Tilborg, who joined Miko in 1992, will remain involved in international operations and retain a board seat, marking a leadership transition after nearly four decades. (Turnhout, Belgium)

• Wed, 22 Jan –Knoops plans major UK and international expansion in 2025. The UK artisanal hot chocolate chain plans to expand from 24 to 40 domestic stores with new sites in Cardiff, Norwich, and York. Global expansion plans include entering the US, China, and more Middle Eastern markets. Reporting 22% UK sales growth and £16 million projected revenue, Knoops targets 3,000 global stores by 2030, supported by £14.3 million in 2023 funding rounds. (London, UK)

• Fri, 24 Jan – JDE Peet’s CFO announces departure. Scott Gray, CFO of JDE Peet’s since 2020, has resigned to join his family in the US. A successor will be announced with the company’s full-year results in February, taking office in Q2 2025. Gray will stay on temporarily to ensure a smooth transition. He previously served as interim CEO before Rafa Oliveira’s appointment. (Amsterdam, the Netherlands)

• Fri, 24 Jan – Nominations still open for Coffee Association of Canada’s Charity of the Year. The programme is designed to highlight a non-profit or charity that is dedicated to supporting the coffee community and/or food and beverage sector, either at origin or in Canada. Nominations are open until EOD 24 January. (Toronto, Canada)

New launch

• Mon, 20 Jan –illycaffè unveiled its first 100% regenerative agriculture coffee at SIGEP 2025. The company’s Arabica Selection Brazil Cerrado Mineiro, a 100% regenerative agriculture coffee certified by regenagri, is available in a 1.5 kg whole bean can for Horeca businesses. (Trieste, Italy)

• Tue, 21 Jan –Marco Beverage Systems unveils its refreshed website. Designed to improve the user experience and showcase its full range of hot and cold beverage solutions, Marco’s new website revamps the brand’s image and raises awareness among potential clients. (Dublin, Ireland)

• Tue, 21 Jan –Lavazza and Lamborghini launch exclusive coffee blend. The Italian coffee brand and luxury car manufacturer launched a dark roast blend intended to reflect their shared commitment to precision and quality. With full-bodied flavour and intensity, Lavazza says the blend mirrors Lamborghini’s high-powered performance. (Turin, Italy)

• Wed, 22 Jan –New social network links coffee lovers with independent roasters in the US. Coffeedrippd, a social platform for coffee enthusiasts, has a directory of over 2,000 US roasters and 25,000 coffee beans. Users can search, purchase directly from roasters, rate, journal experiences, and connect with others. (Richmond, Virginia, US)

• Wed, 22 Jan –Boyd’s Coffee revives 125-year-old brand with direct-to-consumer launch. The roaster now expands its reach beyond B2B markets. The brand’s portfolio includes light, medium, and dark roasts, single origin offerings, and flavoured coffees. The products are available in compostable pods and retail bags. (Portland, Oregon, US)

• Thu, 23 Jan –Quamar launches new professional coffee grinder line. The Italian manufacturer’s ALPHA grinders feature automatic portafilter recognition, eliminating manual adjustments. The new models are available in 65mm, 75mm, and 83mm burr sizes, with micrometric adjustments, a 4.3-inch touchscreen, and an ergonomic design. The grinders also include a removable antistatic system and detachable exit tube for easier maintenance. (Altivole, Italy)

Milestone

• Mon, 20 Jan –Turkey’s Espressolab announces new Chief Marketing Officer. Espressolab has promoted Ersin Kefeli to the position. Joining in 2016, Kefeli will now oversee all marketing, communications, CRM, and e-commerce for the 315-store brand. With 105 new outlets in 2024, Espressolab aims for 400 stores globally by 2025, with expansion plans in several international markets. (Istanbul, Turkey)

• Tue, 21 Jan –Caffè Nero reports highest UK holiday season sales ever. The chain reported a 14% increase in UK sales for the five weeks ending 30 December 2024, with record daily sales of £1.5 million on 30 November. The growth was driven by over two million customers in the first week of December and 40% of transactions via the Nero app. (London, UK)

• Wed, 22 Jan –Dualit’s private label coffee programme sees record growth. The company has partnered with brands like Rave Coffee, Hermanos, and Figment Coffee. It has secured prestigious awards for its sustainable coffee solutions, including at the Great Taste Awards and World Coffee Innovation Awards. (Crawley, UK)

• Wed, 22 Jan –Third Wave Coffee names new marketing director. The Indian specialty coffee chain has named Akshat Arora, ex-Tim Hortons India, as marketing director to enhance consumer engagement and support its expansion. Third Wave Coffee plans to reach 150 outlets by March 2025, adding 80-100 sites annually, with recent growth in cities like Chennai, Bengaluru, Mumbai, and Hyderabad. (Bengaluru, India)

• Wed, 22 Jan –Chelvies Coffee raises US $1 million for outlet expansion. The Indian specialty coffee chain raised the funds in pre-Series A funding, led by Endurance Capital, with an additional US $500,000 in debt financing. The company plans to expand from six outlets to 30 by 2026, focusing on metro cities and improving supply chain, operations, and food production capabilities. (New Delhi, India)

• Wed, 22 Jan –Nick Ayerst appointed as new managing director of Gail’s. Ayerst, set to step down as CEO of Comptoir Group next month, will join the coffee and bakery chain in March. He brings extensive experience from roles at Leon and The Restaurant Group Concessions. Meanwhile, Dan Barrett has been promoted to managing director of The Bread Factory. (London, UK)

• Thu, 23 Jan – Fairtrade Foundation names new CEO. The Fairtrade Foundation has appointed Eleanor Harrison OBE as CEO, starting in March 2025. Succeeding Michael Gidney, she brings 20 years of leadership experience in purpose-driven organisations. Interim CEO Fiona Kindness will serve until Harrison assumes the role, aiming to expand Fairtrade’s impact amid global challenges. (London, UK)

• Fri, 24 Jan – European Coffee Brewing Centre approves Ceado’s Lixe X grinder. The ECBC tests particle size distribution, grind retention, uniformity of performance and extraction, and hopper capacity. The Lixe X grinders, which feature 50mm blind burrs, now have the right to use the ECBC’s Seal of Approval. (Veneto, Italy)

• Fri, 24 Jan – Veloso Coffee becomes regenagri certified. The Brazilian coffee farm, established in 1977, has been recognised for its regenerative farming practices, including upcycling coffee waste into fertilisers and only using reforested eucalyptus and coffee wood in its dryers. (Minas Gerais, Brazil)

Trade & production

• Tue, 21 Jan –Volcafe secures US $23 million facility to support producers in Costa Rica. The loan from FMO, the Dutch Entrepreneurial Development Bank, will help the trader purchase coffee cherries from smallholder farmers and cooperatives, promoting sustainable farming practices through the Volcafe Way programme while strengthening local partnerships. (Winterthur, Switzerland)

• Thu, 23 Jan –NKG announces changes to organisational structure. The green coffee trader is decentralising operations to strengthen regional leadership, with new offices in the Americas, Asia Pacific, and EMEA, each led by a regional CEO. The leadership structure is being streamlined to enhance agility and strategic focus, aiming to improve decision-making and foster growth across its global network. (Hamburg, Germany)

Research

• Mon, 20 Jan – Capsule coffee machine market to grow by US $931.1 million until 2029, driven by demand, retail expansion, and AI innovation. According to Technavio, the global capsule coffee machine market is set to grow at a CAGR of 4.3%. Growth is driven by demand, smart machines, and the expansion of café culture, with APAC leading at 28%. However, environmental challenges related to capsule waste remain a key concern. (New York City, New York, US)

• Tue, 21 Jan –Global coffee report 2025-2033 highlights instant coffee and RTD dominance. The global coffee market, valued at US $121.69 billion in 2024, is projected to reach US $186.37 billion by 2033. Growth stems from rising disposable incomes, evolving lifestyles, specialty coffee demand, and convenience-focused options like RTD beverages. Sustainability and innovative flavours also shape market trends. (Dublin, Ireland)

• Wed, 22 Jan –World Coffee Research renews US $10 million commitment to invest in its coffee breeding and seed research programmes. The organisation includes over 190 members in 29 countries. Multi-year commitments from members have helped launch two global coffee breeding networks for arabica and robusta that together include the participation and collaboration of 11 producing countries. (Portland, Oregon, US)

Events & competitions

• Mon, 20 Jan – World of Coffee Dubai 2025 to take place from 10 to 12 February. The event, taking place at the Dubai World Trade Center, will feature over 300 exhibitors, the Roaster Village, the 2025 UAE Coffee Championships, and workshops. (Dubai, UAE)

• Mon, 20 Jan –CoffeeFest Madrid 2025 will host the 2025 Spanish Barista and Coffee Roasting Championships. CoffeeFest, taking place at IFEMA Madrid from 15 to 17 February, celebrates specialty coffee culture with activities like presentations, workshops, and tastings. (Madrid, Spain)

• Tue, 21 Jan – The 2025 African Fine Coffees Association Conference will be held from 26 to 28 February. The 21st edition will take place at the Julius Nyerere International Convention Centre. Themed “Value Regeneration”, the event includes speaker sessions, exhibitions, workshops, B2B cuppings, networking, the Africa Barista Championship, and the Regional Taste of Harvest Competition. (Dar Es Salam, Tanzania)

• Wed, 22 Jan –WMF showcases espresso NEXT and celebrates 70 years at Internorga 2025. The company highlighted the WMF espresso NEXT, a semi-automatic portafilter machine, with brand ambassador and German Latte Art Champion Daniel Gerlach. WMF also hosted workshops and a latte art challenge, marking 70 years of its service in the coffee industry. (Geislingen, Germany)

• Thu, 23 Jan –HOTELEX Shanghai 2025 set for 30 March to 2 April. The event will feature over 3,800 brands and 40 competitions, following a record-breaking 2024 with 283,046 attendees and 15,761 international visitors. Highlights include the coffee, wine, and food festival, merging international brands with immersive experiences to celebrate wine culture. (Shanghai, China)

• Fri, 24 Jan – SIGEP 2025 ends with record attendance. This year saw a 14% increase in attendance, with a 26% increase in international visitors. Over 5,500 business meetings and delegations from 160 countries took place at the event, which highlights innovation in the coffee, food and beverage, and hospitality industries. Saudi Arabia was featured as the guest country. SIGEP World returns in 2026, with other editions in China and Asia scheduled for later in 2025. (Rimini, Italy)

Here are a few coffee news stories from previous weeks that you might find interesting. Take a look:

• Thu, 16 Jan –Curbit teams up with Equator Coffees to improve digital ordering with Olo integration. The update provides real-time kitchen capacity-based order times and SMS updates, enhancing accuracy and customer satisfaction. The collaboration aligns with Equator’s focus on quality and operational efficiency. (Calabasas, California, US)

• Fri, 17 Jan –Starbucks China’s chair retires as the company faces weak demand and rising competition. Belinda Wong leaves the company after 25 years, during which she grew China into Starbucks’ largest international market. Her departure comes amid falling revenue, intense competition from local rivals like Luckin Coffee, and ongoing global management reshuffles. (Shanghai, China)

Sign up to our weekly coffee news recap to get a summary of all the biggest stories in the sector, delivered straight to your inbox every Monday.

Photo credits: Specialty Coffee Association

Want to keep up with current affairs in the coffee industry? Check out last week’s coffee news stories and make sure to read the latest Coffee Intelligence News & Opinion piece about the “Starbuckisation” of the language of coffee.

The post Coffee News Recap, 24 Jan: Conab cuts estimates for Brazil’s 2024-25 harvest by 1.6%, Dubai Coffee Auction announced for 10 & 11 Feb & other stories appeared first on Perfect Daily Grind.