Coffee News Recap, 13 Dec: Arabica futures reach all-time high as Volcafe reduces Brazil estimates, Colombia’s coffee production rises 20% in 2024 & other stories

Every Friday, Perfect Daily Grind rounds up the top coffee industry news from the week. 

Editor’s note

As we approach the end of 2024, market volatility shows no signs of slowing down anytime soon. After its recent visit to Brazil revealed the extent of a severe drought on the country’s 2025-26 production volumes, major green coffee trader Volcafe reduced its estimates, causing the C market to surge to an all-time high.

It’s been hard to ignore the growing number of mainstream media outlets reporting on how roasters have already started raising their prices – no doubt causing some concern among consumers. The Guardian stated coffee drinkers will soon face price increases, while Reuters reported that some of Brazil’s top roasters, including JDE Peet’s and Melitta, will increase their prices by up to 30% in 2025.

Price hikes are a harsh reality for roasters and consumers alike, but passing on some of the costs is inevitable as businesses grapple with rising coffee futures. Customers will be willing to bear some of the brunt, but just how much is a key question that remains unclear for now.

Looking ahead, roasters will need to strike a balance between absorbing additional costs and sharing some with the end consumer. It will be a fine line for many, so developing an effective menu pricing strategy will be more important than ever.

Alongside this, open communication and transparency with customers are likely to work in roasters’ favour. Explaining why they have to raise prices may also have some positive repercussions, allowing consumers to better understand the value of quality coffee.

Conversely, roasters may see customers pivot towards more cost-effective options like blends and lower 80-point single origin lots. Either way, roasters will need to stay agile and flexible.

Top stories of the week

• Mon, 9 Dec – Registration opens for the 2025 Specialty Coffee Expo in Houston.The event will be held from 25 to 27 April at the George R. Brown Convention Center in Houston. Expected to feature over 600 exhibitors and 17,000 attendees, and with Peru as the Portrait Country, the event is one of the most anticipated in the coffee industry. (Houston, Texas, US)

• Tue, 10 Dec –Brazil’s exports hit a record 46.4 million 60kg bags in 11 months. According to Cecafé, Brazil’s coffee exports increased by 5.4% from last year. Export revenues surged by 62.7% to over US $1.3 billion, primarily led by arabica shipments. The US, Germany, and Belgium were the biggest buyers of Brazilian coffee. (São Paulo, Brazil)

• Tue, 10 Dec –Arabica futures reach record high as Volcafe reduces Brazil estimates following “severe” drought. The C market has spiked by 80% this year alone, driven by fears of significant supply shortages from both Brazil and Vietnam. Market insiders expect a deficit of 2 million 60kg bags in 2024-25, compared to a surplus of 2.6 million bags in 2023-24. (New York City, New York, US)

• Wed, 11 Dec –McWin Capital reportedly set to acquire UK’s Gail’s bakery. McWin Capital Partners, an existing investor in Gail’s through a 2021 controlling stake with Bain Capital Credit, is reportedly seeking full ownership of the boutique bakery-café chain. Valued at up to £500 million, Gail’s achieved 27.5% revenue growth to £231.7 million in 2024. McWin specialises in pan-European foodservice investments, including Subway, Popeyes, and Burger King franchises. (London, UK)

• Wed, 11 Dec –Colombian coffee production rises 20% in 2024. The growth is driven by improved pest control and climate change adaptations, with exports to the US and Canada making up 45% of total foreign shipments. Total revenue is forecasted to exceed 14 trillion pesos (US $3.14 billion). Despite previous forecasts, the harvest is not expected to exceed 13.6 million 60kg bags. (Bogotá, Colombia)

• Thu, 12 Dec –Private investment firm Sojourner acquires Hawaii Coffee Company. The acquisition, in partnership with Anderson Holdings, launches SoJoe Coffee, a platform focused on packaged coffee investments. Hawaii Coffee Company will retain its operations in Hawaii, including its roasting, milling, and café facilities. (Honolulu, Hawaii, US)

• Fri, 13 Dec – JDE Peet’s to raise coffee prices in Brazil by 30% by January. Another major Brazil roaster, 3 Coracoes, plans to hike prices by 11% on 1 Jan, while Melitta increased its prices by 25% on 3 December. Market analysts say coffee drinkers could feel the impacts by the end of March.

Industry news

• Mon, 9 Dec –James Hoffmann partners with Swiss Water for The Decaf Project. Swiss Water welcomed Hoffmann and his team to its BC facility. The project explores three key decaffeination methods to create the industry’s first large-scale comparison of different decaf processes, culminating in a bespoke decaf tasting. (Delta, Canada)

• Mon, 9 Dec –Small-format coffee chains gain traction in the Philippines. Both local and international brands are scaling quickly. Manila-based Pickup Coffee reached 300 stores by December 2024, having grown 50% in six months. Homegrown chains like Beanleaf and global brands like ZUS Coffee and Kopi Kenangan are also expanding. (Manila, Philippines)

• Mon, 9 Dec –The Nero Group enhances Waitrose collaboration with new in-store cafés. Nero Group has launched in-store Caffè Nero outlets in five UK Waitrose locations. Additionally, a 1,500 sq ft standalone store will open in John Lewis in White City, London. This partnership builds on their 2021 relationship, with Caffè Nero supplying coffee for Waitrose’s loyalty programme. (London, UK)

• Tue, 10 Dec –ECOM and Sourcemap team up for EUDR compliance. Using Sourcemap’s software, ECOM will map farms, monitor for deforestation via satellite imagery, and automate verification of EU-bound shipments, ensuring traceability and regulatory compliance while strengthening supplier due diligence. (Paris, France)

• Tue, 10 Dec –Starbucks names first China chief growth officer. The chain appointed Tony Yang as Chief Growth Officer for China amid declining sales. Yang, formerly of Tezign, will lead growth strategies as competition from local brands like Luckin and Manner intensifies. Starbucks saw a 14% drop in comparable store sales in China for the fiscal year ending 29 September 2024. (Seattle, Washington, US)

• Tue, 10 Dec –US drive-thru chain 7 Brew names first chief marketing officer. The company appointed Nick Chavez as its first CMO. Chavez, previously CMO at KFC, brings experience from brands like Nintendo and Yahoo! to enhance 7 Brew’s brand awareness, loyalty programme, and customer engagement. (Fayetteville, Arkansas, US)

• Wed, 11 Dec –South Korea’sSPC Group plans Paris Baguette expansion to 12,000 stores globally by 2030. Currently operating 3,750 locations in South Korea and 600 across 14 international markets, the chain targets growth in China, East Asia, the Middle East, North America, and Europe, with franchise agreements and infrastructure projects supporting its ambitious expansion strategy. (Seoul, South Korea)

• Wed, 11 Dec –London’s Yolk launches premium subscription. The chain aims to compete with Pret A Manger and LEON with its Club Yolk subscription plan. Aimed at affluent consumers, the BrewClub offers three tiers, starting with a free loyalty scheme and ranging up to £40/month for three daily beverages. The launch follows LEON’s £25 subscription for five drinks a day. (London, UK)

• Thu, 12 Dec –Dutch trader Sucden agrees to settlement after alleged ICE trading violation. Sucden Coffee Netherlands paid a US $20,000 fine and surrendered over US $670,000 in profits related to a potential rule violation against market manipulation. The company declined to comment (Amsterdam, the Netherlands)

New launch

• Tue, 10 Dec –Reborn Coffee and Finlays launch limited-edition RTD cold brew. The 4th Wave Cold Brew RTD product line was announced at Art Basel Miami Beach 2024. It includes two cold brew options, the Miami Passion Signature Blend and a single origin Colombian, with a focus on quality and innovation. Set to launch in early 2025, the Miami Passion flavour features a label designed by artist Mira, capturing Miami’s vibrant energy. (Miami, Florida, US)

• Tue, 10 Dec –Heavy Tamper unveils its new Ultra Espresso Basket. With a 250-micron mesh screen and over 5,000 holes, the basket is designed to prevent over-extraction and enhance flavour clarity. Designed for 58mm portafilters, it ensures consistent extraction between 17 and 19g doses. (Prague, Czech Republic)

• Wed, 11 Dec –Sanremo releases the new modular D8 machine.The Sanremo D8 hybrid espresso machine features customisable components, an insulated stainless steel boiler, and group temperature controls. Its IoT connectivity also enables remote monitoring, management of multiple machines, and maintenance tracking. Additional options include cup warmers, auto steamers, and cold-touch steam wands. (Vascon, Italy)

• Wed, 11 Dec –San Francisco Bay Coffee launches “Café Rentable” to enhance global farmer sustainability and profitability. Covering regions like Latin America, Rwanda, and Indonesia, the programme focuses on reducing costs, boosting efficiency, and benefiting over 9,000 farmers, aligning with Enveritas’ sustainability standards. (San Francisco, California, US)

Milestone

• Mon, 9 Dec –Brazil’s The Coffee debuts in Italy. Founded in 2018, the Curitiba-based brand now operates 280 stores across 14 countries. Its European markets include Spain, France, Portugal, and Austria, with plans for further expansion in the Netherlands, Germany, and Switzerland by 2028. (Curitiba, Brazil)

• Wed, 11 Dec –Starbucks reaches its 88th global market with first store in Honduras. The first Starbucks’ Honduran outlet is a 3,000 sq ft drive-thru in San Pedro Sula, in partnership with franchisee Premium Restaurants of America. The store, certified as a Greener Store, is part of Starbucks’ commitment to lower environmental impact. (Seattle, Washington, US)

• Thu, 12 Dec – Mr. Coffee Perfect Brew certifies as SCA home brewer. The all-in-one machine uses intelligent technology to adjust brew time, temperature, and water for optimal extraction. Offering seven brew settings, Mr. Coffee Perfect Brew Intelligent Multi-Beverage Brewer prepares coffee, cold brew, and tea, meeting SCA’s Golden Cup standards. (Cleveland, Ohio, US)

Trade & production

• Mon, 9 Dec – ICO report shows I-CIP returned to an upward trajectory in November. The report shows an 8% rise in the Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) to US 270.72 cents/lb. Colombian and Other Mild categories saw increases of over 10%, while the arbitrage between London and New York futures grew 43.9%. Global green bean exports in October 2024 rose 15.8%, with strong growth from South America and Africa. (London, UK)

• Thu, 12 Dec –European Commission officially launches the EUDR Information System. The platform will be used to submit due diligence statements under the EU’s deforestation regulations. The ACCEPTANCE training server allows users to familiarise themselves with the platform. Over 2,500 stakeholders have already received training. (Brussels, Belgium)

Research

• Mon, 9 Dec –New study uncovers genetic mechanisms of coffee wilt disease. Researchers from Imperial College London, University of Oxford, and CABI have advanced understanding of coffee wilt disease caused by the fungal pathogen Fusarium Xylarioides. The study reveals distinct lineages affecting arabica and robusta varieties, with gene transfers contributing to host specificity. This insight may improve disease management and understanding of fungal evolution. (Oxford, UK)

• Thu, 12 Dec –FAO report highlights hidden costs of coffee production. The study highlights the hidden social and environmental costs in East Africa’s coffee production, including greenhouse gas emissions, child labour, and gender wage gaps. In Ethiopia, Uganda, and Tanzania, these factors, particularly the living income gap, underline disparities unaccounted for in market prices despite record global coffee prices. (Rome, Italy)

Events

• Mon, 9 Dec –The first-ever Coffee Science and Education Summit to be held at ZHAW Campus Reidbach on 6 & 7 February 2025. The event aims to unite coffee professionals, researchers, and educators to explore interdisciplinary solutions for the future of the industry. Highlights include lectures, workshops, and tastings, with keynotes by Sabine Parrish on coffee’s social dimensions and André Eiermann on espresso evolution. (Zurich, Switzerland)

• Tue, 10 Dec – The 2025 International Café and Beverage Show to highlight coffee and café culture in the Asia-Pacific region. The event, to be held from 24 to 26 April 2025, is expected to bring together 600 brands and 18,000 attendees from over 55 countries. Next year’s ICBS will host the Malaysia Open Championships and a dedicated Roasters Village. (Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia)

• Thu, 12 Dec –Cafeex Shanghai 2024 to take place from 20 to 22 December. The event will be held at the Shanghai World Expo Exhibition & Convention Center, and will host a trade show exhibition, forums, coffee cuppings, barista and roasting competitions, and more. (Shanghai, China)

Here are a few coffee news stories from previous weeks that you might find interesting. Take a look:

• Mon, 2 Dec –TreeHouse Foods completes Harris Tea acquisition. The deal closed for US $205 million and includes facilities in New Jersey and Georgia, integrating Harris Tea’s blending and sourcing capabilities. Expected to close in Q1 2025, the acquisition aligns with TreeHouse’s growth strategy, enhancing scale, margins, and category leadership. (Oak Brook, Illinois, US)

• Sat, 7 Dec –Martin Thompson appointed CEO of Nestlé USA. Thompson, who has led the growth of Starbucks and Nescafé in the US, will work under Steve Presley, CEO of Nestlé Zone Americas. With over 35 years of experience in the consumer goods segment, Thompson previously served as CEO of Ghirardelli Chocolate. The announcement will be effective from 1 January 2025. (Arlington, Virginia, US)

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Want to keep up with current affairs in the coffee industry? Check out last week’s coffee news stories and make sure to read the latest Coffee Intelligence News & Opinion piece about why McDonald’s is tapping into Latino coffee culture.

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