Industry insiders reflect on another strong year for sake, as well as their increasingly urgent measures to guard against climate change.
In cultures across the world, a new year offers an opportunity to reflect on past successes and challenges while preparing for future prosperity. The same is true for sake makers, from centuries past through to 2024, as they begin a new brewing year. Sake Day is celebrated around the world on October 1. Its date comes from the historical turn of the sake brewing year, which ran from October 1 to September 30 (today’s brewing year ends three months earlier). Sake Day 2024 is still marked as an opportunity to celebrate sake and for producers to reaffirm their work to promote Japan’s national drink. This year, the Japan Sake and Shochu Association spoke to stakeholders around the world to mark the occasion. It found an industry which is thriving and optimistic, even as significant challenges remain on the horizon.
Local recovery and a global foothold
Figures on sake sales from 2023 show a year that, if not record-breaking, continues a positive long-term trajectory. In particular, sake is moving away from historical mass consumption in Japan to an increasingly global and premium footprint. At home, Japan is a long way off its historic highs of sake consumption. In 1973, around 200 million cases (nine litres in volume) were consumed in the domestic market; in 2023, the figure was 47m cases. Over the last 50 years, as with many alcoholic drinks, the size of the sake market has dramatically decreased. However, there has been plenty of good news in the market’s post-Covid recovery. Domestic sales jumped by 114% compared to 2022, shaking off the last depressing influences of the pandemic. The market also saw premium sakes grow as a sector, with the average shipment price rising in the year. In export markets, the story is likewise positive. Although sales did not match 2022 levels, the minor decrease comes after 13 record-breaking years of consecutive export growth. Reduced sales in Asia, driven by China’s economic downturn, were largely offset by growth in North America, Europe and Africa. At 3.2m cases, the exports are still 1.8 times 2019’s levels. Moreover, the trend of premiumisation also reached export markets. As one promising sign, the average export value of a 720ml bottle crossed ¥1,000 for the first time. For those working in export markets, there are signs that consumers are caring more about high-quality sake. “Sake is increasingly being viewed similarly to wine by general consumers,” says Sean Ou, a sake educator in Singapore. “Many people no longer mistake sake for a distilled spirit.” He also notes that sake’s more refined expressions are gaining ground: “Dry sake is becoming more popular in recent years, especially among those with a mature palate.”
Reduced yields due to climate change
Looking beyond 2024, growing export markets and the premium sector, as well as negotiating economic downturns, will remain high on the sake industry’s agenda. However, sake makers are also turning their attention to the fundamental challenge of climate change. Like any agricultural product, sake relies on good conditions for rice cultivation. However, changes to Japan’s climate are reducing yields, particularly for rice varieties suitable for premium sakes. Japan’s premier sake rice variety, often branded as ‘the king of sake rice’, is Yamada Nishiki. Like winemaking’s noble varieties, such as Cabernet Sauvignon and Chardonnay, it sells at a higher price than other sake rice varieties. Sake brewers particularly admire Yamada Nishiki for its large grains, ease of polishing, low protein content and large shinpaku (the starchy core at the heart of the grain). Takuma Sugimoto from the Hyogo Prefectural Technology Center for Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries has spent years studying Yamada Nishiki, and climate change is posing a real threat to the variety. He draws on decades of studying sake rice, from historical trends right up to the emerging evidence from 2024. “Over 45 years of research, we’ve found an inverse correlation between the quality of Yamada Nishiki and the increase in temperatures during the ripening period (the 40-50 days after the rice flowers bloom),” he explains. The ideal average temperature for the ripening season is 26°C, but temperatures have risen in recent decades. Above 28°C, he explains, chains of amylopectin (a complex carbohydrate) in the rice become longer. These are harder for the yeast to break down, creating more lees in the process. This ultimately reduces the yield of sake. “This phenomenon has been occurring since 1998,” says Sugimoto. Higher temperatures also reduce the quality of shinpaku formation in Yamada Nishiki. In recent years, the rate of formation has dropped from 70% to 65%. This results in immature rice grains, called nyuhaku, that crack easily during polishing and further reduce producer yields.
Safeguarding sake’s future
Rice farmers and sake producers are facing the challenge of securing sake rice by ushering in an era of technological innovation and increased collaboration. Research into new varieties is providing a safety net if weather patterns become more extreme. The Hyogo Prefectural Technology Center for Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries has spent over ten years developing heat-resistant sake rice varieties. These types, such as Hyogo Sake 85 and Hyogo Nishiki, are not yet replacing Yamada Nishiki, but more and more producers are starting to use them. Others are looking to the past for inspiration. Omachi, a heritage rice variety that is the ancestor of Yamada Nishiki, offers an alternative solution to the challenge of warmer growing seasons. “Since it is a late-ripening variety, harvested as late as December, it seems to have avoided the worst effects of climate change so far,” explains Kazuaki Fujiwara, chairman of the Okayama Sake Rice Council. It also has a passionate global following, sometimes labelled Omachists. However, cultivating Omachi rice comes with significant challenges of its own. Its yield is around half that of regular table rice and it requires more labour than other varieties. Growers in its birthplace, Okayama, are therefore concerned it will decline. In an unusual move, sake brewers are collaborating with growers to ensure the variety’s continued survival. One historical brewery in Okayama is switching its entire production, both for domestic and international consumption, to the variety in support of the farmers who cultivate it.
An exciting future for sake
Such initiatives are strong evidence that, as it reflects on a new year, the sake industry is meeting current challenges head-on. At the same time, it is also acting to seize the many new opportunities for growth that are looming on the horizon. ‘Traditional knowledge and skills of sake-making with koji mold in Japan’ has been proposed to UNESCO as a candidate for Intangible Cultural Heritage status. This would raise sake’s profile, putting it in the same category as practices such as Georgian traditional Qvevri winemaking and Turkish coffee culture and tradition. It would also synergise with the status of Washoku, Japan’s traditional Japanese cuisine, which has been on the list since 2013. There are many other opportunities as sake develops a more modern image, particularly in export markets. Low alcohol sake, canned sake and sparkling sake are just some of the breakout products that are capturing consumers’ imaginations. Even in a very young market, it seems that sake is finally cutting through to consumers. Just ask Fabio Ota, a sake importer and educator working in Brazil. “In our two retail stores in São Paulo,” he says, “we have seen an increase in customers who come specifically for certain brands, which suggests that consumers are moving beyond basic knowledge of sake and developing a preference for specific brands.” Given that São Paulo is almost on the other side of the planet from Japan, this shows that sake’s reach cannot be underestimated. Who could doubt in 2024 that sake can go anywhere?
